How accurate is a Zestimate for an Irvine home?

Per Zillow's own published data, the nationwide median Zestimate error is about 1.9% for on-market homes and 7.0% for off-market homes. Half of all Zestimates miss by more than the median. On a typical Irvine home in the $1 to $2 million range, that means the Zestimate can easily be off by $70,000 to $150,000, and Irvine's village-level pricing nuances make the local error often worse than the national average.

Why does the Zestimate change after a home sells?

Zillow's algorithm learns from recorded sale prices. Once your closing is recorded, the system updates the Zestimate to reflect that new data point. This is why post-sale Zestimates often look much more accurate than pre-sale ones. The algorithm is matching the sale, not predicting it. The Zestimate that mattered (the pre-listing one) is the one you cannot rely on.

Is a Redfin Estimate or Realtor.com estimate more accurate than a Zestimate?

No major consumer AVM is materially more accurate than the others. Redfin reports roughly 2.0% on-market and 7.6% off-market median error. Realtor.com and other AVMs land in the same band. They all rely on similar public-record inputs and miss the same Irvine-specific factors: village, school boundary, HOA, lot premium, condition, and pending comps.

What is a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) and how is it different from a Zestimate?

A CMA is a human-prepared valuation by a licensed REALTOR that uses live MLS data, an in-person property walk-through, hyper-local closed comparables, pending sales, and adjustments for condition, upgrades, location, and school attendance. An experienced Irvine CMA typically lands within 2 to 3 percent of final sale price, meaningfully tighter than any algorithm. It is the document prepared for every Irvine listing and every offer my buyers write.

How do I get an accurate valuation for my Irvine home?

Call or text Debbie Sagorin at 949.537.2079 or email debbie@sagorin.com. Debbie will visit your home, review recent and pending sales in your specific village, factor in your upgrades and lot, and deliver a written CMA with a recommended list-price range and pricing strategy. There is no obligation and no cost. She has provided this service to hundreds of Irvine families across Woodbridge, Turtle Rock, Northwood, Quail Hill, University Park, and the rest of Irvine for 21+ years.

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The Limits of Zestimates: Why You Should Rely on an Irvine Expert for Precise Home Valuations

By: Debbie Sagorin Published: 11/02/2024
Updated: 05/31/2026

Zillow's own data shows Zestimates miss off-market homes by 7% nationwide - that is $105,000 on a $1.5M Irvine home. See two recent Woodbridge case studies and learn why a Comparative Market Analysis from a local Irvine expert is the only valuation you should trust.