Irvine Market Update, October 2026: More Listings Left Unsold Than Sold

Last month I wrote that Irvine inventory was tightening because fewer homes were coming to market, and I said plainly that it was not because sellers were giving up. I also said I would keep watching through October and November. One month later the count of homes for sale has fallen again, but the reason has changed, and I want to show the working.

What changed since September 6

September 6 figures are from last month's pull, published on the Irvine housing market data page.

Read the table from the bottom up. Sales barely moved and escrows slipped slightly, so homes did not leave the market faster by selling. What moved was the unsold column. For the first time in any reading I have published, more Irvine listings left the market without selling than sold.

September was not a normal September

The obvious objection is the calendar. Listings that went up in spring reach the end of their agreements in late summer, and some sellers pull their homes once the school year starts. So I checked the same months a year earlier.

Unsold exits in July and August were almost exactly last year's. September's were not. Unsold exits were 50% higher than in September 2025, while sales were slightly lower. Expired listings went from 58 in August to 90 in September and withdrawals from 20 to 40, so this was not one kind of exit spiking on its own. Some of it may still be seasonal in a way a single year cannot show, but it is not simply the usual end-of-summer pattern, because last September did not have it.

Where those 244 listings went

An unsold exit is not always a seller walking away. Some cancel and relist within days under a new MLS number, after a price cut or a change of agent. So I matched each of September's 244 failed listings by parcel number against everything currently listed, in escrow or sold.

• 71 are already back: 63 active again, 6 in escrow and 2 sold.
• 173 have not come back, at least not yet.

Some of those 173 will return. Owners who pull a home in September often relist in the new year. But for now they are simply gone, and that is why the inventory count fell while sales stood still. 115 of today's 713 active listings are homes that already failed once since July, and they are asking a median 93.2% of the price they first listed at.

What a failed listing costs a seller

This is the number I most want Irvine sellers to see. Over the last 90 days I traced every sale back through any earlier listing of the same home that had been cancelled, expired or withdrawn within 90 days before it was relisted.

• Homes that sold the first time closed at a median 96.2% of their first asking price.
• Homes that sold after a failed listing closed at a median 87.5% of their first asking price.

That gap of almost nine points is the price of starting too high. On a $1,500,000 asking price it is roughly $130,000. Once a home has been relisted, its new listing usually sells close to its new price, at a median 97.4%, so the loss is invisible if you only look at the final listing. It shows up only when you follow the home back to where it started. About 1 in 5 Irvine sales over the last 90 days, 19%, had a failed listing first, against 15% over the same 90 days in 2025.

One fair comparison to add. Across all sales, the median Irvine home sold at 94.9% of its first asking price over the last 90 days, against 94.7% over the same weeks a year ago. Summer is always the weakest stretch for that number. What has changed is not how much the typical seller gives up, it is how many sellers had to fail first to get there.

The caveats

Three things limit how far this can be pushed. First, CRMLS updates a listing's status over time, and a withdrawn listing often becomes cancelled or expired later, so the 2025 monthly counts are as recorded today rather than as they looked at the time. Second, a cancelled listing that relists the same day is counted as an exit, which is why I show where the 244 went rather than treating the number as 244 sellers who quit. Third, one month is one month. If unsold exits stay well above last year through October and November, this becomes a trend. If they fall back, September was a clearing of overpriced listings, which is healthy for everyone still selling.

If you are selling this fall

Price to the last 90 days of closed sales in your own village, not to last spring and not to the listing down the street that has been sitting for two months. The data above says the market is not punishing correctly priced homes: they still sell at about 96% of their first asking price. It is punishing homes that start high, fail, and come back lower. If your agent's plan is to "test the market" with a high price, ask what happens in week six if it does not work.

If you are buying

Look at the relisted homes. A home that failed once and came back has a seller who has already been told something by the market, and 45% of active Irvine listings have already been reduced. The negotiating room is real, but it is not even across the city. The Irvine housing market data page breaks months of supply down village by village, from under one month in Oak Creek to almost seven in Great Park.

Frequently asked questions

Why did Irvine inventory drop in September 2026?

Because more listings came off the market without selling, not because homes sold faster. Active listings fell from 762 on September 6 to 713 on October 4, 2026, while the closing pace held at about 179 a month and escrows slipped from 177 to 169. In September alone 244 Irvine listings were cancelled, expired or withdrawn, against 163 in September 2025.

How many Irvine listings fail to sell?

Over the 90 days ending October 4, 2026, 577 Irvine listings came off the market unsold while 538 sold. Not every exit is permanent: of the 244 that came off in September, 71 were already back on the market, in escrow or sold by October 4, and 173 had not returned.

What happens to the price when an Irvine listing is cancelled and relisted?

Over the 90 days ending October 4, 2026, Irvine homes that sold after a failed listing closed at a median 87.5% of their first asking price, against 96.2% for homes that sold on their first listing. About 1 in 5 sales, 19%, had a failed listing first, up from 15% in the same weeks of 2025.

Is Irvine a buyer's or seller's market in October 2026?

Close to balanced citywide, at 4.0 months of supply on October 4, 2026, but it varies widely by village, from under one month in Oak Creek to almost seven in Great Park. 45% of active listings have already been reduced below their original price.

Methodology

Compiled from California Regional Multiple Listing Service (CRMLS) records for the city of Irvine, residential property only, covering condominiums, townhouses and single family residences. Current figures come from a pull dated October 4, 2026: 538 closed sales from July 6 through October 4, 2026, and 713 active listings including 10 coming soon, plus 78 active under contract and 91 pending. Monthly comparisons with 2025 come from a 24-month pull of closed sales and a pull of all cancelled, expired and withdrawn Irvine listings from April 1, 2024 through October 4, 2026, dated by the date of the status change. Months of supply is active listings divided by the average monthly closing pace over the last 90 days. To trace relisted homes, each sale and each failed listing was matched by assessor parcel number, or by address where the parcel number was missing, and a failed listing counts toward a later sale if it came off the market within 90 days before the next listing went on. September 6 comparison figures come from the previous monthly pull, published on the Irvine housing market data page. Data is subject to reporting lags and later revision by CRMLS.